Sunday Business, London, Sports Column.

Sep. 29--Football and finance do not always go together. Just ask Millwall fans how their shares are performing.

Manchester United, as ever, could be the exception that proves the rule. Of the seven brokers polled for the most recent Multex Estimates report, three said "buy" and four said "hold" -- an overall consensus rating of "buy", based on the strength of each individual rating.

With final results due any day, United will once again be in the spotlight. So what can investors expect?

Consensus numbers from these seven brokers indicate expected revenue of UKpound 229 million (euro366 million), up 8 percent year-on-year; earnings before interest and tax of UKpound 49.6 million (euro79.3 million), up nearly 62 percent; and pre-tax profit of UKpound 48.5 million (euro77.6 million), up 40 percent. All this despite the club's failure to win a single piece of silverware last year.

Importantly, the club is once again in the Champions League and, with two successive wins, its progression to the second-group stage looks assured. Merrill Lynch has already placed a "buy" rating and 150 pence price objective on the shares, based on the assumption that United does not progress beyond this first league stage of the competition.

"Once any success on the pitch actually takes the club further than this, we will upgrade accordingly," it says.

Merrill estimates that the club again reaching the semi-final stage of the Champions League would add UKpound 8 million-UKpound 10 million to the bottom line from the extra gate money involved, combined with additional television revenue. But it has a word of warning. The 150 pence price target is dependent on future on-pitch performance, in particular continued qualification for the Champions League. But, with a price target reflecting 60 percent upside potential, that is hardly surprising.

Dresdner Kleinwort Was-serstein ("hold") is more cautious. The new Champions League TV deal for qualifying UK clubs looks positive. The UKpound 80 million (euro128 million) fee is a 23 percent increase on last season's figure, albeit incorporating more games.

This augurs well for the next Premiership TV rights deal, due next year. While the value of domestic rights "will undoubtedly fall", DKW says, the value of ancillary rights should increase in favour of the big clubs. Internet rights, for instance, will become available for the first time and United's 50 million global fan base presents a real opportunity. But DKW says: "Let's wait and see."

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UKpound preceding a numeral refers to the United Kingdom's pound sterling.

(c) 2002, Sunday Business, London. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.

TICKER SYMBOL(S): MNU